Page 92 - Regional Services Plan 2016/19
P. 92
Appendix 4: Future trends on Midland region populations and health services
Future trends overview
The following table describes some of the trends in healthcare that will impact upon Midland DHBs, with a brief overview of the likely impact of each trend on the continuum of health care services – from prevention promotion to rehabilitation and palliative care. This table does not describe our intended response to each trend.
Table 5: Future trends affecting Midland region populations
Type of Change
Prevention & health promotion
Primary care & early intervention
Secondary care - elective and acute
Rehabilitation, home support & palliative care
Demography
The populations are ageing, and the proportion of Māori is increasing in each of the DHBs. The prevalence of long term conditions (LTCs) such as diabetes, cancer, age related disability and cardiovascular disease will increase.
There will be greater emphasis on strategies to reduce the incidence of conditions such as diabetes and heart disease via lifestyle modification (e.g. healthy pregnancy, smoking cessation, HEHA), public policy and urban design.
Falls prevention approaches are likely
to expand.
Intersectoral approaches to improving Child Health will be important to resolve this problem.
Increased prevalence of chronic conditions, age related conditions, and co-morbidities result in increased demand for primary care services. Demand for disability services will also increase. The higher proportion of Māori will result in calls for more Māori owned and managed health services.
Focus on achieving a healthy pregnancy and delivery is critical to long term well being
Demand for both elective services (e.g. hip replacements) and acute services (ED attendances and acute medical admissions) will increase.
Older patients and Māori are more likely to have co-morbidities, requiring more complex care.
A review of Australian aged care services found that 86% of people aged 85 years plus require assistance with everyday activities, although only about 13% use residential care services.
More services for the elderly such as aged residential care, restorative home care and dementia services will be required.
Greater focus on refining care for those “in the last year of life” will identify a need for more comprehensive palliative care services.
Social Changes
Increasing rates of obesity
Changing consumer expectations Lifestyle changes
Sedentary lifestyles and poor eating
habits are resulting in increased obesity related diseases in New Zealand. Smoking rates are reducing – but at a slower pace among Māori.
The baby boomer generation is more
likely to be assertive in requesting health services and to be informed of rights and options. Patients are becoming better informed about their own healthcare (e.g. through the internet), meaning they are better placed to take a more active role in management of their own health.
Increasing patient and clinician
expectations will increase pressure for secondary services to provide the newest treatments, and purchase the latest equipment, in turn increasing costs. Bariatric surgery demand will increase, as will the use of appearance medicine (at least in private hospitals).
Most people will demand home
based care options rather than residential services.
92
APPENDIX 4: FUTURE TRENDS ON MIDLAND REGION POPULATIONS AND HEALTH SERVICES
